Weekly Market Forecast 11.1.2017
After a positive close last week for major stock markets, except for the Nikkei and the Chinese stock market, here is an outlook of what is coming for the January 9 -13, 2016 trading.
- US Reports
Oil prices are now increasing after the OPEC’s agreement to cut production. This coming Wednesday, the US Crude Oil inventory report would be released. As of the end of the year, inventories were stocked up for various oil products in order to dodge taxes, which are getting higher due to production cuts.
The Unemployment claims report would be released on Thursday where the forecast would be reversed in favor of a higher figure for the last week of December. However, it still does not reach the 300,000 threshold record. Unemployment claim is forecasted at 262,000 as opposed to 256,750 last week. This trend in the labor market provides a healthy and stable indicator for the US economy.
The retail sales figures to be released on Friday are forecasted to continue the uptrend due to positive factors. Increases in wages and consumer consumption boost the positive figures for forecast. It is expected to boost the figure at a 0.3% increase. The consumer sentiment to back their finances provides enough consumer confidence in purchasing and contributing to the retail sales positive figure.
The Production Price Index on Friday is forecasted to continue its increasing rate for the upcoming effect of inflationary rate hikes. This also adds to the effect of oil prices waiting to be jacked up, as production would be less and rising taxes would come into play. Lastly, the US Dollar continues its strength over the global economy, bringing in more returns and value to the currency.
- Other Reports
The European Central Bank would release its minutes of the meeting this coming Thursday. It is agreed that the agency would extend its current stimulus program, which includes limiting bond buying. The minutes to be released would provide an overview on whether the plan to increase the inflation rate could result in the extension of the program or if it would suffice and other options would be pursued. The other possibilities would include the indicators on whether the ECB could still hold up in exploring other options and providing stability for the EUR/USD exchange.
German reports would be released, including the Industrial Production Index and Trade Balances, on Monday. Both reports are forecasted to release positive figures, surpassing the previous figures from the November 2016 reports. Germany is on surplus for its trading activities.
Eurozone’s Unemployment Rate and Industrial Production are in a polarizing forecast. Unemployment rate is forecasted to keep the same figures last October at 9.8% while the Industrial Production forecasted an increase of 0.5%, from a 0.1% decrease last October.
Points to Remember
Keeping track of an investment portfolio and deciding on what to do are tedious and require a lot of knowledge and sentiment in the global market. That is the job of a financial advisor, if there is one. He will be great to work with when it comes to the more technical decisions and forecasts. An investor could identify possible threats and opportunities in a portfolio with the help of an advisor or by simply reading trusted sources and articles. Regularly reviewing how a portfolio performs for a specific trading week could provide crucial details on how the investments would fare in the long run. Both internal and external factors should be considered in fairly assessing the risk and accommodating the gains or losses. In the end, it is always up to the investor’s decision to stick to his or her goal and vision.