Market Forecast 15.03.2017

After a slight disruption in a straight winning streak of the US stocks last week, the economic report and labor market are still promising and optimistic. Rates would be released this week, and here is a takedown of what would transpire this coming week.

US Reports:

The real deal would be whether the rate hike this coming March 15 would be able to sustain the expectations of investors and the concerned public. This is a scenario where the rate would be beneficial, yet at the same time disappointing due to its inherent risk. The economy as noted by Fed Chair Janet Yellen, is operating under speculation and speculation alone. It has not reached the boundary of objectives reasonable enough to conclude its effectiveness. The setback would be on the US dollar, as it would not gain enough if the Fed decided to increase its rate.

As for gold prices, the coming week might add a slight indicator of short-term confidence on the increase of its trading price. Oil inventories are seen to continue their record high number, which could counter the falling demand for gasoline, which resulted from its dismal closing price last week.

The inflation report would likely cause more increase in interest rates, as relayed by Yellen. On the report to be released Wednesday, consumer prices are predicted to increase by 0.2%, due to the increase in prices for automobiles, clothing, and energy. This increase in prices of commodity indicate a trigger point for inflation rate increase. Unemployment claims still continue to be below the 300K mark, which sustains a healthy labor market for the country.

Japan:

The Bank of Japan would release its rate decision this coming Thursday. The bank’s governor Haruhiko Kuroda said that the inflation rate target of 2% might be taking quite a longer time to achieve. While the concern is looming over Donald Trump’s protectionist policy, Governor Kuroda said that the said policy would actually be able to boost economic growth around the world and in the US. How this would occur is still mere speculation and projections for export activities are looking good until the upcoming fiscal year.

UK:

The Bank of England would also release its rate decision on Thursday. The past report saw the benchmark rate for the bank being retained at 0.25% and the bank opting to retain its measures on its other monetary policy. The bank positively forecasted an improvement in the economy, which would result in a higher chance of a rate increase in comparison to not putting a cut on it. The economic growth prediction rate is set at 2%, together with a lower rate for unemployment. Brexit seems to keep the growth from halting, and the country’s policymakers could expect continuous growth for the coming months.

New Zealand:

The country would release its GDP data this coming Wednesday with a forecasted a 0.7% growth rate for Q4 of 2016. The last third quarter saw an increase in construction and consumer spending activities. The resulting forecast was triggered by a rising number of tourists, boosting manufacturing for tourist export and retail. Note also that the service sector took an expansion of 1.1% for the quarter alone.

As always, stay diversified and study the balance of an investment portfolio. Market volatility is a surefire miss, if not considered carefully.

 


Market Forecast 7.3.2017

With most global markets gaining during the last few weeks, the markets releasing economic data seem to benefit from positive figures. Aside from that, monetary policies were implemented to curb any movement in inflation and equity investment uncertainties.

Global Rate Decisions:

The European Central Bank would release its rate decision this coming Thursday. It may seem that the ECB would keep the rate based on January and that the bond-buying effort would still be in place. ECB’s head Mario Draghi directly said that even if the Eurozone is getting more positive, time is still needed for it to fully recover. He further explained that more monetary and fiscal measures should still be considered to fully reach its desired recovery.

Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia would also release its rate decision this coming Tuesday. The February rate of 1.5% was still in place and as economists would say in the upcoming announcement, rates would likely be raised. Others would contradict the sentiment that since the inflation does not rise, then the rate should likely be more put down.

Global Market Outlook:

The Federal Reserve is still playing largely on the part of the economy, as many are prospecting another rate hike this coming March 15.

China might be able to gain a balance on its economy. The reforms were already showing significant movement as the export industry was slowly gaining. Other global economies might want to take advantage of the country’s growing consumer market, as optimistic sentiment could be drawn towards more spending, and the global trade focus could culminate in the coming years.

As for Europe, equities might show an improvement, as earnings were looking good and the hype on the zone’s politics might not pose a significant risk in the coming few weeks.

Canada would release its employment date on Friday. January reports an increase of jobs in the service industry while the unemployment rate registered at 6.8% against 6.9% last December. This means that the country is slowly recovering from oil price slowdowns, although the jobs created were mostly part-time, doubling its increase by almost 100% against increases in the full-time jobs created.

For a given fact, the US unemployment report registered the lowest figure, and this figure is surely a major factor for consideration in the Federal rate hike. The labor market in the US poses a healthy prospective; if maintained, this could lead to a record on full employment rate.

Currency Trade:

The EUR/USD for the coming week might continue its bearish streak, as Mario Draghi might be able to proclaim certain measures and policies that would further boost the economy and bring it back from its slump.

On the other hand, the USD/JPY is seen to be bullish the coming week. Despite the erratic effect of Trump on the country’s economy, strong export activities might be able to cope and produce more positive data figures for the country as a whole. With the upcoming release of Q4 figures, the market would likely respond and gear towards the bullish line on every market analysis tool.

In the end, market volatility plays a big part on what to normally consider in every investment decision. Trend analysis, forecasting tools, and other sophisticated market simulators could not even guarantee sure decision-making; they’re simply tools in making a wise one. Economic factors, political agenda, and the world’s reaction on the policies being implemented would all contribute to how the market would truly react and show significant figures are in making economic decisions.

Currently. it is to be considered that the short-term effect of the continuous market rally would not necessarily mean a reflecting factor on how it would translate in the long run. Being focused and diversified would surely put any investor on the advantage line.


Market forecast 28.2.2017

For the week of 27 February, the Euro and US Dollar are both attempting to recover as it attempts an upward trend.  However, a downward trend is expected, and a flat trajectory is seen as momentum remains neutral.

The US dollar, however, closed last week moving up slightly a notch higher, so better days are expected ahead.  The US dollar lost ground last week against three currencies:  The New Zealand dollar, the Australian dollar, and the Japanese yen.

The market is still bracing itself to higher interest rates on the U.S. equity prices since newly-elected President Trump announced several times that he will implement tax reforms, and that these reforms will be announced in a matter of weeks. The aim of these tax reforms is to lower the overall tax burden on American businesses. However, implementing tax reforms will not be an easy road to pass in the U.S. Senate.  As a result, this delay could lead to a steady increase in interest rates.  Investing in the U.S. dollar may not be ideal during this time.

The Japanese Yen, despite overall slump in the past couple of months, is slowly gaining ground against the U.S. Dollar because investors are using this currency as a hedge. Many investors are also using the Yen as a hedge to brace themselves for the outcome of the upcoming French Presidential elections and the rumoured Scottish referendum in the United Kingdom.

Many market analysts are bullish over the British Pound and the US Dollar pairing, despite the fact that it slid down to 0.4%, its lowest level since February 15. Political changes in both the United Kingdom and the United States continue to make both currencies volatile, but financial analysts predict that both will be stable in the long term.

In the United States residential real estate sector, there was a considerable increase of brand-new home purchases across all states in January, and this is expected to climb up as the weather gets warmer, especially across the colder regions.  These January home sale figures are a significant increase compared to a lacklustre December. Home sales are expected to increase by .50% this coming week. The UK housing market, on the other hand, is expected to be in good shape despite Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit plans and other political instabilities. There is a forecasted slight increase in mortgage approvals in the UK this week.

The Euro is expected to be steady, with a forecasted 50% increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in both French and Italian markets. The Spanish and Italian Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is expected to slightly increase mid-week, while the French and German manufacturing PMI will remain steady, same as last week. When it comes to the services PMI for the Euro, there is an expected increase at the end of the week for Spanish and Italian services PMI, and the French and German services PMI, just like in the manufacturing sector, is expected to be remain the same as last week.

The pairing of the Euro and British Pounds decreased last week, though it also had significant gains.  At the beginning of the week, the GBP is expected to steadily increase.  However, with fresh rumours of a Scottish referendum affecting market decisions, the British pound is steadily weakening against the Euro, Australian Dollar, and U.S. dollar. The sterling will continue to steadily slide against major currencies until the concern for the referendum is abated. It is expected to stabilize once the news is confirmed to be unfounded. But in case of this eventuality, the Prime Minister should be ready to accept the consequences.


Market Forecast:

Last week’s market performance was a mix of an optimistic US economy against the gloomy Asian and European markets. A lot of economic issues were setting a volatile market for most equity investments despite their advancing figures brought about by improvements in the US economy. The Greek bailout is yet to be confirmed, whether the IMF would be able to provide the amount the country needs. Here is an overview of what to expect for the coming trading week.

US Reports:

The US Crude Oil Inventory report would be released on Wednesday. Last week’s report dropped figures due to the output cut from refineries and the low demand for gasoline. Analysts forecasted, though, that in the coming weeks, demand for crude oil products would improve. Be it noted that in the last four weeks, there was an accumulated 8.43 million barrels per day decline in gasoline demand.

The Federal Reserve Minutes of Meeting would also be released on Wednesday. The report would entail the approval of interest rate hikes last December 2016, after the optimistic result of Trump’s win on the country’s economy. Economists purported that the economy would be able to achieve growth of up to 2.1% against the past year estimate of only 2%. Trump’s promise to spend more on infrastructure is believed to be a major contributory factor in improving the country’s economic growth.

Unemployment claims remain below the 300,000 mark, with a predicted figure of 242,000 registering the coming week, as opposed to 239,000 last. The unemployment report marks another positive business sentiment among investors, projecting a healthy economy.

Europe Reports:

The GDP data for the UK would be released on Wednesday with an economic forecast figure of 0.6% for Q4 2016. The Q3 GDP growth was 0.5%. There are several reasons for this growth, the main one of which is the country’s improved consumer spending. On the contrary, the construction industry is weak and does not add further variable for a strong GDP figure. 2017 is predicted to be slow in terms of economic growth due to higher living costs and a decline in various business investments.

The Eurozone Consumer Confidence would be released Monday with an improvement of -4.7 to -4.3. On the other hand, the Inflation report to be released on Wednesday is predicted to be 1.2% for January 2017 against 1.1% last December 2016.

Asia-Pacific Reports:

This coming Thursday in Australia, RBA Governor Philip Lowe is scheduled to testify in the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics. The testimony would include his stance on more spending to be focused on infrastructure. This would result in solutions for the country’s increasing population. Aside from that, he is against the US President’s barriers on trade policies, which the country mostly benefits from. Australia is on an open international trading system. He believes the country would be able to attain a 3% economic growth rate for the coming years. The mining industry, though, could see a downtrend in the coming months.

Despite a volatile Asian market being affected by Trump’s trade policy, equity investment could still provide a reasonable opportunity to put money into. Volatility rate is low in Asia. Bank policies may still continue per country. Meanwhile, China is starting to tighten its fiscal measures amidst rising debts.  According to many analysts, China is on the verge of an economic issue: its rising debt is overshadowing the slow GDP growth of the country. However, the effect would still not be realized until the full effectivity of US trade policies.

The global marketplace seems to again register a volatile week for investors who should decide correctly on their investment plan. Stay wise, invest diversely, and keep eye on the long-term game.

 

 


Market Forecast 14.02.2017:

The US stocks closed on a positive note last trading week, as investors were more optimistic about President Donald Trump’s pro-business monetary policy plans. The European market slightly improves while the ECB keeps on tracking the effect of the policies in place. The Asian market had a mixed trading week where Japan is slowly tracking improvement. China was re-assessing its policies to solve short-term fallouts.

Here is a take on the highlights for the coming week.

US:

Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen will meet with the Senate Banking Committee for the Semiannual Monetary Policy report on Tuesday. The testimony may contain discussions on putting a halt on increasing interest rates, as the global market is slowly falling, due to trade restriction policies and the strengthening of the US dollar. Although the US is steadily improving in employment and wage growth, other global markets might not be able to do so.

The Retail sales report to be released Tuesday is forecasted to hike by 0.1% for January 2017 and a 0.4% increase for core sales. President Trump’s policies over bank regulations and tax cuts would certainly factor in the increasing economic growth and increased consumer spending. Reported December gains benefited from increased sales in furniture and automobiles.

The Inflation data report would be released on Wednesday where the forecasted rate for January would be increased by 0.3% for consumer prices and 0.2% gain for core CPI. The December 2016 report saw a rate increase of 0.3% for consumer prices. If the rate reflects the coming week, this would be another notch higher from the past two years with regards to the country’s inflation rate.

The unemployment claims report to be released Thursday improves its figure from the Feb. 4 report with an astounding 234,000. That could be said based on analyst reports that the unemployment rate is on a nine-year low, with 4.8%. This says that the country is reaching a healthy labor market, with the rate reaching max employment.

Another optimistic report to be released on Thursday is that of building permits. Economists are highly positive as housing construction registered the highest annual demand from 2007.

The closing price for crude oil products slightly ticked up. The US Crude Oil inventory report would be released Wednesday.  Due to the rising demand, stocks registered a high number of 13.8 million barrels against the forecast of 2.5 million. Oil prices would likely continue to rise despite the high number of stocks and imports, which could be balanced out by the high demand for usage.

Japan:

The country’s GDP data would be released on Sunday. For the Q4 of 2016, the expected report to reflect would be a growth rate of 0.3%. Q3 reports suggested slowly improvements and recovery in terms of wages and employment. On the other hand, the main triggers for the slow economic growth of the country were the restrictions attached to new trade policies by the US and China. Despite that, rising export demands could sustain much needed optimism for the country’s economic improvement.

Europe:

The UK’s inflation report data would be released on Tuesday, with a January 2017 CPI forecasted increase of 1.9%. Last month’s report registered an increase, which would be attributed to the rising prices in food and airfare. Following the Brexit issue, it is expected that prices would continue to affect consumers while the pound weakens.

Germany would also release the GDP report this coming Tuesday. It has an expected growth rate of 0.5% for Q4 2016. However, the underlying concern would be US trade restrictions where the country relies on export activities. Germany’s slow growth could still have another problem where the UK’s exit from the EU would pose a big effect on domestic economic activity.

Stay diversified and focus on the long term goals. Short term policies would contribute to short term effects. but looking at the holistic level in a portfolio would aid better in decision-making. Global markets, especially the equity investments, are volatile so learn to balance the mix and ratio of an investment.

 

 


Market Forecast 08.02.2017

Here is what to expect this coming trading week. Earning season reports are already laid out with incoming reports from Disney, Coca-Cola, and General Motors. BNP Paribas and Commerzbank would also provide interest data this coming week. The agreement on the production cut by OPEC would be cleared this week by the International Energy Administration regarding its concern on whether it could support the US’ rising demand.

Positive US Outlook for the Week despite Trump’s Sideline Policies

The travel ban implemented by President Trump was not well-received. Analysts say this move is getting more attention than what was promised. Though stocks have been rallying over the past few weeks, these sudden policies, which affect the sentiment among other global markets, would likely influence what the administration should be focusing on. Analysts say that it is the political sentiment that drives the market right now and not the bank’s regulations or policies. Investors and traders are hoping that the promised tax reforms and increased fiscal spending would be immediately set in motion to further cement the strong economic movement.

The unemployment report claims reflect positively as it continues to show a healthy labor market in the country. Last week’s report of 246,000 would be supported by a slightly increased forecasted figure of 249,000. The economy is expecting strong support from its labor sector. The US crude oil inventory report reached 6.5 million barrels last week, with an expected additional 2.6 million the coming week. The trading price still remains within the $53 range due to a weak dollar index.

Another report to be taken for the long term positioning of every portfolio is the upcoming Consumer Sentiment report to be released on Friday. Based on the report, 44% of the respondents were positive towards the improvement of the economy while 33% expect the decline in the unemployment rate to continue. However, outside relations with other countries do not fare well this week after unprecedented words have been thrown by President Trump towards Japan, Australia, and Mexico. This action has added more volatility to the market.

Chinese reports take spotlight next week

Friday is the date set for China’s January trade figures. The report is expected to reflect information based on last month’s figure of $40.8 billion to $48.9 billion trade surplus. The country still needs to address its housing market problems and the effect of US policy on economic activity protection. On the brighter side, the country’s economy recorded growth by 6.8% for Q4 due to bank’s lending activities and government spending. Caixin services PMI would also be released Monday, with an expected figure rising to 53.6, as compared to the last report of 53.4.

Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision

Last December, the bank kept its benchmark interest rate of 1.50% while retaining its monetary policy. This coming Tuesday, the bank would release its decision. As economists expect, the bank would not change the rate due to its attempt to put a balance on the housing market against inflation and wage growth, which was not reaching the target figures. Retail sales figures would also be released this coming Monday.

 Reserve Bank of New Zealand reports

The current rate of 1.75% is expected to be influenced by the US status in its political stance and focus, as well as by the looming Brexit movement. Based on the forecast, the bank would keep its current rate, yet changes would be made as soon as certain factors such as inflation and outside economic effect perpetuate in the country’s economic position.

Canada’s Employment Report

This month would expect a drop from 6.9% to 6.8% on Canada’s unemployment rate. It is the full-time positions that are marking gains, which reflect an 81,300 increase while part-time positions showed a drop by 27,600.

 


Market Forecast 31.01.2017

Dow Jones reached the 20,000 mark last week and the US economy is significantly showing an impressive upscale streak. However, reservations should still be held as the effects of the fiscal and economic policies that US President Donald Trump would implement have yet to be seen. So far, the tariff agreement and the TPP retreat by the US seem to provide the slide in the US dollar as opposed to the financial spending promised by President Trump.

In other areas, Japan is taking advantage of the export gains while China should re-assess its credit standing. Brexit is still pushing through despite SC Ruling on a vote.

Here are the news to be expected in the coming trading week:

US Reports

  • The Federal Reserve implemented its plans of continually increasing the benchmark interest rate expected among concerned parties. The fund rate is now at 0.75%, which marks the second rate hike in the last ten years. It is known that the Federal Reserve would support all measures to bring action on improving its monetary policy, which will propel the economy forward. President Donald Trump’s promised tax-cut and focus on infrastructure, as well as inflation, could provide further improvement on the economy. With the said policy to be set in motion, company net earnings would improve; thus, bringing in a more positive economic figure for the country.
  • This coming Wednesday, the PMI report would be released. It is forecasted that the figure would reflect 55 points, based on strong production reports and export highs. The said factors provided a strong foundation for a great start for the year. Crude Oil inventories also show significant increases, which is expected to result in another tick up on the reports to be released.
  • Thursday would see the release of Unemployment Claims, which still continue to fall below the 300,000 mark even with the increased figure of 259,000 last week. It is expected to drop to 251,000 this week.

Other Reports

  • Bank of England’s interest rate of 0.25% remained, although concerned parties were properly informed of increasing inflation, backed with a decline in wage improvement that would affect UK households. The bank would hold on to the current rate all throughout 2017, as it would still weigh in on how Brexit would affect the country’s economic growth.
  • Bank of Japan still left their current monetary policies unchanged because the said policies are still in line with the country’s market forecast.
  • China would release its Manufacturing PMI data this coming Wednesday and by Friday, it would release the Ciaxin Manufacturing PMI.
  • Canada would release its GDP data this coming Tuesday where the forecast would be a tick up of 0.1%. The manufacturing sector has seen a drop of 2% due to production slowdown, reflecting slow growth. With the country expecting an economic growth of 0.3% by November, the manufacturing sector should at least make a recovery to further boost its growth.
  • The EUR/USD could reach a high of 1.09 this coming trading week, with 1.05 the lowest, in comparison to last week’s target of 1.0750, which was not reached.

This week might see a set of a chain of events. The White House proposed an additional 20% tax on Mexican imports, increasing the inflation for agricultural products. In the end, it is the consumers that would shoulder the additional import tax that is likely to be approved. The market is also likely to be volatile, as major economic areas are following monetary policies that have a direct effect on the economy, hoping that they would work out. As an investor, the decisions should be properly understood. Remain cautious to leave room for setbacks and uncertainties.

 

 


Market Forecast 24.1.2017

The closing prices for the US stocks during the last trading week is followed by a big week for US history as Donald Trump was formally inaugurated as the 45th President of the country. His Presidency would start with a lot of debacles in the global market as many affected parties would be monitoring the implementation of his promised policies. These include healthcare topics, letting go of Obamacare, and the continuance of US ties with Mexico, Russia and China. Reports would be published this coming week on the ever volatile market positions of most global economies.

Here’s an overview of what will come during this trading week.

Europe Reports

UK’s Gross Domestic Product data would be released on Thursday where the Q4 growth is expected to be at a 0.5% level. This forecast is less than what transpired during Q3. UK is still weighing in the deal with the turnout of the Brexit vote, which would materialize this coming March of 2017. As for the country’s economic reading, a good figure could be deduced, with a 0.6% expansion growth rate.

Germany’s IFO business climate figure is forecasted to further take a hike, up to 111.3 from 111.0.  The country is not that affected by any downside caused by Brexit, as this IFO figure suggests a strong economic position and growth from the past quarter. Even the US upcoming policies would not advertently put a stop to the country’s economic movement. Despite Germany’s resilience, 2017 would not be a great year for the country’s growth where it is expected to be slower as compared to 2016. The report would be released on Wednesday.

Mario Draghi, President of European Central Bank, would be giving a speech in Torino this coming Sunday. After his announcement of keeping the current financial policies, the political sentiment among parties would surely bring a lot of chatter. However, the President hopes that such tone in policies could be backed up by improving economic reports among its territories, like the positive figures from Germany.

US Reports

US Q4 gross domestic product date is forecasted at 2.1%. The report to be released this Friday signifies that the US will be holding fast economic growth two years from now. The third quarter is the starting point for the economic growth, which would directly be co-related to the election campaign. This in turn, amped up the country’s spending. Sentiments are also flying as to what the elected President could still do for the US economy.

Unemployment claims to be released Thursday is still below the 300,000 mark, continuing the record. It is expected to post a 247,000 figure this week. The data shows that the US economy is providing a strong labor market in the country, which, in the current President’s term, could still be improved. This is due to more focused spending, which could create more jobs.

Durable goods report to be released Friday is expected to project a 2.7% increase, with the core orders showing a 0.5% hike.

Trump’s presidency is acting like a great future with an unnerving volatility at the same time. His policies though, should be taken into serious consideration, so as to avoid any misreading of other global markets.

Other Reports

Asian economies are still mixed up, due to a volatile market and the negative impact of Trump’s policies on the Asian market. Bank of Japan is still pushing policies to put a halt on yen’s appreciation over the US dollar. On the other hand, China is putting action over the country’s debt and idle-moving finance in its banking sector. Other Asian markets are struggling to provide monetary policies to improve economic growth and stability.

Others

Brazil’s Judge, helming the corruption-scandal probe, died in a plane crash. Judge Lava Jato is currently investigating Petrobras, a state-owned company. Many believe that the accident would not halt the investigation’s progress.

Argentina is seeing a strong demand after the announcement of a $7 billion-bond deal in two parts. The said bond selling would have the country’s credit rating revisited due to the improved fiscal policy, adding to the fact of the country’s President Mauricio Macri’s popularity.

Market Recap

Dow Jones and S&P 500 fell again 19,827.25 (-0.29%) and 2,271.31 (-0.15%), respectively. Nasdaq and Russell 2000 suffered the same with 5,555.33 (-0.34%) and 1,351.85 (-1.47%), respectively.

Nikkei 225 tumbles again with 19,137.91 (-0.80%) and FTSE 100 with 7,198.44 (-0.14%).

The EUR/USD exchange rate closed at 1.0718 with a +0.16% change from last week.

Oil closed at $52.42 per barrel (-2.4%) while gold is at 1,215.00 down (+0.84%), compared to last week.

As always, stay diversified and keep track of the long term goals. Trump’s Presidency has a lot to offer on the global market, so stay focused and always be alert.


Markets Forecast 20.01.2017

While Donald Trump’s inauguration is nearing, the global market is awaiting how he would enact his policies over his promises to lower tax rates and increase infrastructure spending. However, during his first press conference, the lack of mention of fiscal stimulus on the USA left many businesses and analysts questioning how his policies would pan out in the long run. This is a rundown of the expected events for the upcoming trading week.

  • US Reports

Inflation data would be released Wednesday. The Federal Reserve is planning a three-rate hike for the year 2017 alone, notwithstanding President Trump’s tax revamp and increased spending on the infrastructure sector. The Consumer Price Index continually increases every year, with a 1.7% current rate.

Last week, unemployment claims rose to 247,000, still below the 300,000 mark, for the longest record. The figures are expected to stay within the range as the sentiment to a more positive job market could support more jobs and create new ones. If the figure still continues for the upcoming weeks after Trump’s official designation, then it is a good indicator of optimistic business confidence in the labor market and inclusive economic growth.

Oil prices are not panning out as the OPEC expects them to. Last week’s close indicates a continuous trend for the coming weeks, as most US refineries are operating at a capacity rate of 93.6% in order to process 17.1 million barrels of crude. Higher output is expected of the US so that inventory build-up is expected to stack up.

The US market would be closed on Monday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day while Federal Reserve Chairperson Janet Yellen is scheduled for a speech this coming Wednesday.

  • UK Reports

Mark Carney, Bank of England governor, formally announced that Brexit is the least of their worries for the stability of the UK in terms of finances. This seems like a complete 180-degree turn for him with regards to changing his narrative from past statements that British citizens would likely suffer severe consequences if the move pushes through. He is scheduled to give a speech on Monday as to the outlook of its economic domain while revising past statements. The sentiment would be true for all as a volatile market would be expected for the coming trading week.

On Tuesday, the UK Inflation data would be released. Bank of England forecasts continue to rise up to 2.7% for the year 2017, maintaining the threshold rate of 2%, good for the year 2020. The Sterling’s decline in value could catapult to higher inflation costs for clothing and petrol prices, as these would increase costs on production. These increased costs would eventually be passed on to consumers. Spending would be affected, in the meantime.

Currently, the European Central Bank keeps the interest rate for December and pushed with cutting back from 80 billion to 60 billion euro asset purchases per month. The bond-buying program intended for economic stability boost is extended until year-ending 2017. Thursday this coming week would see the decision on whether the rate would still be kept or if the program is halted.

  • Other Markets

With the fall of China’s export figures for the year 2016 after a weakening global trade, a pessimistic turn for 2017 export figures is predicted. However, despite exports falling, domestic demand consumerism is improving after the government puts economic stimuli in place to improve business trade and to push spending. Friday would be the release of Chinese figures in retail sales and GDP.

The Japanese yen is still likely to stay weak the coming week, but this would be beneficial for Japanese exporters, particularly when the US dollar is converted to denomination currency. The earnings for the Japanese economy is seen to rise, backed by the Bank of Japan’s policy to stay intact as the country pursues positive opportunities from the weak currency.


Weekly Market Forecast 11.1.2017

 After a positive close last week for major stock markets, except for the Nikkei and the Chinese stock market, here is an outlook of what is coming for the January 9 -13, 2016 trading.

  • US Reports

Oil prices are now increasing after the OPEC’s agreement to cut production. This coming Wednesday, the US Crude Oil inventory report would be released. As of the end of the year, inventories were stocked up for various oil products in order to dodge taxes, which are getting higher due to production cuts.

The Unemployment claims report would be released on Thursday where the forecast would be reversed in favor of a higher figure for the last week of December. However, it still does not reach the 300,000 threshold record. Unemployment claim is forecasted at 262,000 as opposed to 256,750 last week. This trend in the labor market provides a healthy and stable indicator for the US economy.

The retail sales figures to be released on Friday are forecasted to continue the uptrend due to positive factors. Increases in wages and consumer consumption boost the positive figures for forecast. It is expected to boost the figure at a 0.3% increase. The consumer sentiment to back their finances provides enough consumer confidence in purchasing and contributing to the retail sales positive figure.

The Production Price Index on Friday is forecasted to continue its increasing rate for the upcoming effect of inflationary rate hikes. This also adds to the effect of oil prices waiting to be jacked up, as production would be less and rising taxes would come into play. Lastly, the US Dollar continues its strength over the global economy, bringing in more returns and value to the currency.

  • Other Reports

The European Central Bank would release its minutes of the meeting this coming Thursday. It is agreed that the agency would extend its current stimulus program, which includes limiting bond buying. The minutes to be released would provide an overview on whether the plan to increase the inflation rate could result in the extension of the program or if it would suffice and other options would be pursued. The other possibilities would include the indicators on whether the ECB could still hold up in exploring other options and providing stability for the EUR/USD exchange.

German reports would be released, including the Industrial Production Index and Trade Balances, on Monday. Both reports are forecasted to release positive figures, surpassing the previous figures from the November 2016 reports. Germany is on surplus for its trading activities.

Eurozone’s Unemployment Rate and Industrial Production are in a polarizing forecast. Unemployment rate is forecasted to keep the same figures last October at 9.8% while the Industrial Production forecasted an increase of 0.5%, from a 0.1% decrease last October.

Points to Remember

                Keeping track of an investment portfolio and deciding on what to do  are tedious and require a lot of knowledge and sentiment in the global market. That is the job of a financial advisor, if there is one. He will be great to work with when it comes to the more technical decisions and forecasts. An investor could identify possible threats and opportunities in a portfolio with the help of an advisor or by simply reading trusted sources and articles. Regularly reviewing how a portfolio performs for a specific trading week could provide crucial details on how the investments would fare in the long run. Both internal and external factors should be considered in fairly assessing the risk and accommodating the gains or losses. In the end, it is always up to the investor’s decision to stick to his or her goal and vision.